The tenth summit of the Three Seas Initiative, held on April 28–29 in Warsaw, was more symbolic than groundbreaking. For President Andrzej Duda, it represented his last chance to affirm his commitment to an initiative he had long championed as a key framework for political and economic cooperation among Central and Eastern European countries. However, the political landscape in Warsaw has shifted; the current government does not actively support this Initiative, which was evident during the summit.

Although leaders from 12 member states and partners attended, and Montenegro, Albania (as associated countries), Turkey, and Spain (as strategic partners) officially joined the Initiative, the summit did not yield any new institutional decisions. Most countries issued a joint declaration condemning Russia's aggression and supporting Ukraine's EU accession. However, Hungary dissented, arguing that the European Union's stance on the war had not brought any closer to achieving peace and that current negotiations by the United States should be supported. In addition to the political discussions, a Business Forum took place where US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright called for enhanced energy independence in the region, aligning with the EU's climate ambitions. This suggests that the US views the Three Seas Initiative as a counterbalance to Western Europe and a means of exerting regional influence. An agreement signed in Warsaw to design the first Polish nuclear power plant by the Westinghouse-Bechtel consortium reinforces this viewpoint. Prime Minister Tusk highlighted that this investment would substantially benefit domestic companies.

Geopolitical tensions loomed in the background. President Duda asserted that only the US could effectively counter Putin's actions, urging NATO to demonstrate strength. Minister Sikorski criticized Duda for failing to leverage his ties with Donald Trump to push for greater US involvement in Ukraine. Thus, the summit also became a stage for internal political disputes in Poland. Overall, the Warsaw Summit did not mark the beginning of a new era; instead, it served as a farewell to the ambitious vision of the Three Seas Initiative as a substantial axis of regional cooperation. Without backing from the new government and lacking institutional support, the Initiative now teeters between geopolitical illusion and diplomatic formality. Its survival is assured—the only question is whether it will function as a dynamic entity or merely as a political facade.

Source, Łukasz Wojdyga
Director of the Center for Strategic
Studies Warsaw Enterprise Institute